Daily Market Outlook, November 3, 2025
Patrick Munnelly, Partner: Market Strategy, Tickmill Group
Munnelly’s Macro Minute…
Global stock markets began November positively, suggesting that the seven-month rally in risk assets may continue, supported by strong tech earnings and signs of reduced tensions between the US and China. MSCI's all-country world index rose for the seventh time in eight sessions, boosted by a 0.6% increase in Asian equities. S&P 500 futures also increased following Friday’s gains, as optimism regarding corporate results outweighed concerns about the rally's reliance on a few megacap tech companies. European contracts indicated a positive start, while Japanese markets and cash Treasuries were closed for a holiday. In the commodities sector, gold experienced fluctuations after initial declines caused by China’s decision to eliminate a long-standing tax incentive for the metal. West Texas Intermediate crude oil rose 0.6% as OPEC+ chose to maintain production levels, while iron ore fell due to renewed concerns about China's economic outlook. Equities hover near record highs despite Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's warning that a rate cut in December is not assured and mixed signals from tech earnings. Trade relations also showed improvement, with China suspending new export restrictions on rare earths and ending investigations into US semiconductor companies, which enhanced market sentiment. Additionally, Treasury futures increased slightly, and Australian bond yields rose ahead of the Reserve Bank's policy meeting on Tuesday. The US dollar index stabilised as traders awaited comments from Fed officials for insights on the central bank's future actions. Gold remains a focal point after China’s tax change, which may reduce consumer demand in one of the world’s largest gold markets. The metal reached a record high in early October due to strong retail investor interest before sharply declining in the latter part of the month.
Thursday marks the announcement of the November MPC decision, and while the consensus expectation is for the Bank Rate to remain unchanged at 4%, market sentiment last week suggested a 30% chance of a rate cut. Since the August MPR, economic data has generally fallen short of forecasts, particularly in terms of wage growth. However, recent comments from MPC members haven’t strongly emphasised this softness. In fact, the more hawkish voices on the Committee—Mann, Pill, Greene, and Lombardelli—seem resolute in their opposition to a rate cut anytime soon, if at all. For a cut to happen, all five remaining members would need to back it. Taylor and Dhingra seem likely candidates, and Ramsden might also lean in that direction. The decision, therefore, hinges on the more moderate voices: Breeden and Governor Bailey. With inflation expectations running high, it’s anticipated that Bailey may prioritise addressing inflation concerns over reacting to what could be temporary weaknesses in recent data. That said, many view this as a finely balanced decision, with valid arguments on both sides. Additionally, there will be notable changes to the structure of the MPR and MPC minutes. The Monetary Policy Summary will be more concise, and each member will now have a dedicated paragraph in the minutes to outline their individual perspective.
The ongoing US government shutdown means a sparse week for labour market data. Key releases include the ADP private sector employment report (Wed), ISM manufacturing (Mon) and services surveys (Wed), and the University of Michigan consumer confidence index (Fri). However, reports on trade, job openings, durable goods, initial jobless claims, and the monthly employment report may be absent.
In the eurozone, focus shifts to German data: factory orders (Wed), industrial production (Thu), and trade (Fri). China's trade data is also expected (Fri), alongside final October S&P Global PMIs for manufacturing (Mon) and services (Wed). Central bank meetings continue with no major policy changes expected from the RBA (Tue), Riksbank (Wed), or Norges Bank (Thu).
Overnight Headlines
OPEC+ To Pause Output Increases After Modest December Hike
China Scraps Gold Tax Break, Sending Shockwaves Through Bullion Market
China’s Private Factory Survey Shows Slower Growth In October
Trump: No US Nuclear Test Planned ‘For Now’ Amid Defence Shift
Trump: US Troops Could Be On The Ground In Nigeria, Or Air Strikes
Israel Vows More Strikes On Hezbollah, Warns Beirut As US Urges Restraint
Xi–Trump Deal Leads To Auto Chip Shipments Resuming
BoE Expects Divided Vote At Next Rate Meeting, FT Reports
UK Minimum Wage Nears City Entry-level Pay
Australia Home Prices Post Fastest Monthly Gain In 2 Years
RBNZ Stress Test Finds Top Banks Resilient To Geopolitical Risks
Tesla Faces US Probe Over Inoperative Doors After Complaints Rise
Businesses Press US Court To Strike Down Trump’s Emergency Tariff Power
Commerzbank Could Leave Frankfurt HQ As It Embarks On Cost-Cutting Drive
FX Options Expiries For 10am New York Cut
(1BLN+ represents larger expiries, more magnetic when trading within daily ATR)
EUR/USD: 1.1400 (697M), 1.1450 (775M), 1.1475 (567M), 1.1490-00 (592M)
1.1510-20 (712M), 1.1525-30 (958M), 1.1540-50 (870M), 1.1560 (320M)
1.1570-75 (461M), 1.1600 (731M), 1.1615-25 (582M), 1.1630-40 (1.1BLN)
USD/JPY: 152.50 (467M), 153.00 (276M).
USD/CHF: 0.7975 (276M). EUR/CHF: 0.9260-70 (260M)
GBP/USD: 1.3100 (568M), 1.3215-25 (411M)
EUR/GBP: 0.8775 (305M), 0.8800-10 (260M)
AUD/USD: 0.6495-00 (460M), 0.6525 (235M), 0.6535-40 (368M)
0.6575 (200M), 0.6600 (619M), 0.6700 (702M)
USD/CAD: 1.3895-00 (343M), 1.4025 (200M)
CFTC Positions as of the Week Ending 9/10/25
October 1, 2025: During the shutdown of the federal government, Commitments of Traders Reports will not be published
Technical & Trade Views
SP500
Daily VWAP Bearish
Weekly VWAP Bullish
Above 6873 Target 6932
Below 6873 Target 6726
EURUSD
Daily VWAP Bearish
Weekly VWAP Bearish
Below 1.1580 Target 1.1652
Above 1.1580 Target 1.1496
GBPUSD
Daily VWAP Bearish
Weekly VWAP Bearish
Below 1.3180 Target 1.3085
Above 1.3180 Target 1.315
USDJPY
Daily VWAP Bullish
Weekly VWAP Bullish
Below 153.46 Target 152.19
Above 153.46 Target 155.60
XAUUSD
Daily VWAP Bullish
Weekly VWAP Bearish
Above 3975 Target 4095
Below 3965 Target 3860
BTCUSD
Daily VWAP Bearish
Weekly VWAP Bearish
Above 113k Target 118k
Below 112k Target 107k
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Patrick has been involved in the financial markets for well over a decade as a self-educated professional trader and money manager. Flitting between the roles of market commentator, analyst and mentor, Patrick has improved the technical skills and psychological stance of literally hundreds of traders – coaching them to become savvy market operators!