EUR/USD Risks Skewed Towards Downside Amid USD Strength; ECB Signals Dovish Shift

The EUR/USD pair faced renewed downward pressure on Wednesday, slipping toward the 1.0550 level. This movement reflects a broad strengthening of the US Dollar, evidenced by a 0.4% rise in the Dollar Index (DXY) as it attempts to establish a crucial bullish foothold near the 106.50 level. Expectations are mounting that the Federal Reserve might adopt a more measured approach to interest rate cuts in its policy-easing cycle. This shift in market sentiment is driven by forecasts of a pickup in inflation and stronger economic growth in the United States. The recent election of President Donald Trump, who now enjoys the backing of both legislative houses, is expected to facilitate the swift implementation of his economic agenda. Fiscal policies such as infrastructure spending and tax reforms are poised to inject stimulus into the economy, potentially lessening the need for monetary accommodation.
From a technical perspective, EUR/USD’s rebound attempts have repeatedly faltered near the 1.0600 level, signaling that the market remains firmly aligned with bearish risks. This persistent rejection suggests that traders may be positioning for a potential break below the critical psychological support at 1.0500:

Bearish sentiment surrounding the Euro deepens as the ECB pivots decisively toward prioritizing growth over inflation control, underscoring downside risks to the region’s economic outlook. ECB policymaker and Bank of Italy Governor Fabio Panetta recently emphasized the urgency of addressing the "sluggishness of the real economy" in his commentary. With inflation near target and domestic demand stagnating, Panetta argued that "restrictive monetary conditions are no longer necessary," signaling a dovish turn in ECB policy.
This perspective was reinforced by the ECB's semi-annual Financial Stability Review, which cautioned that "economic growth remains fragile." Market consensus is now aligning around the expectation of a 25 basis point cut to the ECB’s Deposit Facility Rate at its December meeting. If enacted, this would represent the fourth rate cut of the year and the third consecutive reduction, underscoring the central bank’s resolve to counter growing headwinds and sustain economic activity.
Meanwhile, the British Pound demonstrated initial strength against its major peers during Wednesday's early session, climbing toward the 1.27 level against the US Dollar. However, these gains quickly evaporated as broad-based Dollar strength regained control of market sentiment. The Pound's brief rally was bolstered by surprisingly robust inflation data from the UK Office for National Statistics, which revealed a sharper-than-expected rise in October's price pressures. The annual headline Consumer Price Index surged to 2.3% year-over-year, exceeding both the previous month's 1.7% and market forecasts of 2.2%.
Services inflation—a key indicator closely monitored by the Bank of England (BoE)—also climbed to 5% from 4.9%, further highlighting persistent price pressures. These developments could complicate traders' expectations for a rate cut at the BoE’s December policy meeting, potentially forcing a recalibration of monetary policy projections. As inflation accelerates, the BoE may face increasing pressure to strike a delicate balance between supporting growth and maintaining price stability.
On the technical front, the pair's attempts to rebound from the key medium-term ascending support line have been lackluster and unconvincing. This tepid response could signal a consolidation phase, potentially paving the way for a breakdown toward the 1.25 level:

Disclaimer: The material provided is for information purposes only and should not be considered as investment advice. The views, information, or opinions expressed in the text belong solely to the author, and not to the author’s employer, organization, committee or other group or individual or company.
Past performance is not indicative of future results.
High Risk Warning: CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 75% and 75% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with Tickmill UK Ltd and Tickmill Europe Ltd respectively. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Futures and Options: Trading futures and options on margin carries a high degree of risk and may result in losses exceeding your initial investment. These products are not suitable for all investors. Ensure you fully understand the risks and take appropriate care to manage your risk.