SP500 LDN TRADING UPDATE 30/10/25
WEEKLY & DAILY LEVELS
***QUOTING ES1! FOR CASH US500 EQUIVALENT LEVELS, SUBTRACT POINT DIFFERENCE***
WEEKLY BULL BEAR ZONE 6830/40
WEEKLY RANGE RES 6939 SUP 6730
OCT EOM STRADDLE 6542/6951
NOV MOPEX 6951/6339
DEC QOPEX 6243/7085
DAILY STRUCTURE - ONE TIME FRAMING HIGHER - 6877
WEEKLY STRUCTURE - ONE TIME FRAMING HIGHER - 6690
MONTHLY STRUCTURE - ONE TIME FRAMING HIGHER - 6371
DAILY BULL BEAR ZONE 6888/90
DAILY RANGE RES 6976 SUP 6882
2 SIGMA RES 7033 SUP 6803
DAILY VWAP BULLISH 6897
VIX BULL BEAR ZONE 18.5
TRADES & TARGETS
LONG ON TEST/REJECT DAILY BULL BEAR ZONE TARGET DAILY RANGE RES
SHORT ON TEST/REJECT OF DAILY RANGE RES TARGET DAILY BULL BEAR ZONE
(I FADE TESTS OF 2 SIGMA LEVELS ESPECIALLY INTO THE FINAL HOUR OF THE NY CASH SESSION AS 90% OF THE TIME WHEN TESTED THE MARKET WILL CLOSE AT OR BELOW THESE LEVELS)
GOLDMAN SACHS TRADING DESK VIEWS
Another session with narrow market breadth (377 S&P names down) while tech, particularly NVDA, remained strong following significant EPS beats and positive reactions (Hynix +7% overnight, STX +20%, TEL +2%, TER +21%, BE +20%). NVDA broke out above a $5 trillion market cap, driven by upbeat Datacenter demand commentary yesterday and ongoing optimism around China. Elsewhere, CAT surged 12%, marking its largest one-day gain since 2009. The stock continues to lead in both cyclical (non-residential and now even copper) and secular (data center) trends. Analyst Day is scheduled for November 4th. Few industrial names in this environment have comparable liquidity, making CAT a potential rotation candidate with further upside potential.
FOMC Update: The Fed raised the target range for the federal funds rate by 25bps to 3.75-4% at its October meeting. Dissenting votes came from Governor Miran, who preferred a larger 50bps cut, and Kansas City Fed President Schmid, who opposed any cut. Market sentiment wavered on two key statements from Powell: "There is no risk-free path for policy" and "Rate cut in December is 'far from' a foregone conclusion." Despite this, the outcome aligned with expectations, as there was no compelling reason to deviate from the current plan amid limited data and elevated risks from the government shutdown. Before today, the market had priced in a 92% probability of a December 10th rate cut; after Powell’s press conference, this dropped to 63%, which felt like an overreaction.
Post-Market Earnings Highlights:
- GOOGL (+7%): Strong across the board, with Cloud and Search exceeding expectations (Cloud +34% vs. Street +30%, Search +14% vs. bogey +13%). Positioning was high at 9/10, reflecting bullish sentiment.
- META (-8%): Mixed results. Revenue metrics beat expectations (Q3 Revenue $51.24B vs. consensus $49.5B), but higher CapEx guidance weighed on the stock. Q4 Revenue guidance came in at $56-59B vs. consensus $57.38B. CapEx for 2025 is now projected at $70-72B, up from the prior $66-72B outlook.
- MSFT (-3%): Declined despite decent results. Azure growth was +39% (vs. consensus +38%), and M365 revenues grew +15% YoY. Revenue totaled $77.67B (vs. $75.55B estimate), with Adj. EPS of $4.13 (vs. $3.67 consensus). Positioning was 8/10, but results lacked a standout catalyst.
Market Activity: Overall activity levels were moderate, rated 6/10. The floor finished -69bps for sale vs. a 30-day average of +19bps. Long-only funds were slight net buyers (+$300M), driven by demand in tech and financials. Hedge funds were net sellers (-$1.3B), with selling concentrated in tech, discretionary, and financials.
Upcoming Events: The Trump/Xi meeting is confirmed for 11am local time in South Korea (10pm ET). The meeting may last up to four hours, with updates expected between 1am and 3am ET. GS futures 24-hour desk will be staffed for updates (212-902-5020). IB instructions are preferred once the call connects.
Derivatives Action: Another day of notable volatility, somewhat masked by a relatively calm index spot move. The session started with a strong vol bid, led by NDX and NVDA outperformance, marking the third consecutive day of "spot up, vol up." NDX vols rose over a full point early on and remained up 0.45v in Dec contracts. However, today differed as discretionary vol sellers emerged across SPX and NDX, particularly in pre-year-end tenors. While gamma retains value amidst muted moves, short-dated premium holders face critical decisions given the crowded event path ahead.
The desk favors short vol positions, especially if the market moves lower, as long vol and long delta positions are trading with high correlation. Additionally, RUT outperformed other indices today. The desk recommends playing short-dated IWM topside as a cost-effective trade to capitalize on potential mega-cap earnings disappointments, given the elevated bar for NDX vol.
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Past performance is not indicative of future results.
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Patrick has been involved in the financial markets for well over a decade as a self-educated professional trader and money manager. Flitting between the roles of market commentator, analyst and mentor, Patrick has improved the technical skills and psychological stance of literally hundreds of traders – coaching them to become savvy market operators!