SP500 LDN TRADING UPDATE 8/8/25
WEEKLY & DAILY LEVELS
***QUOTING ES1! CASH US500 EQUIVALENT LEVELS SUBTRACT ~25 POINTS***
WEEKLY BULL BEAR ZONE 6220/30
WEEKLY RANGE RES 6400 SUP 6130
DAILY BULL BEAR ZONE 6405/15
DAILY RANGE RES 6432 SUP 6315
2 SIGMA RES 6441 SUP 6208
GAP LEVELS 6264/6147/6077/6018/5843/5741/5710
VIX DAILY BULL BEAR ZONE 18
DAILY MARKET CONDITION - ONE TIME FRAMING UP 6334
One-Time Framing Up (OTFU): This represents a market trend where each successive bar forms a higher low, signaling a strong and consistent upward movement.
TRADES & TARGETS
SHORT ON TEST/REJECT DAILY BULL BEAR ZONE TARGET DAILY RANGE SUP
LONG ON TEST/REJECT DAILY RANGE SUP TARGET DAILY BULL BEAR ZONE
(I FADE TESTS OF 2 SIGMA LEVELS ESPECIALLY INTO THE FINAL HOUR OF THE NY CASH SESSION AS 90% OF THE TIME WHEN TESTED THE MARKET WILL CLOSE AT OR BELOW THESE LEVELS)
GOLDMAN SACHS TRADING DESK VIEWS
U.S. EQUITIES UPDATE: DISPERSION
FICC and Equities | 7 August 2025 |
Market Overview:
- S&P 500: Closed down 8bps at 6,340 with a Market-on-Close (MOC) buy imbalance of $1 billion.
- Nasdaq (NDX): Gained 32bps to finish at 23,389.
- Russell 2000 (R2K): Declined 10bps, closing at 2,226.
- Dow Jones: Dropped 51bps, ending at 43,968.
Trading Volume:
17.4 billion shares traded across all U.S. equity exchanges versus the year-to-date daily average of 16.8 billion shares.
Volatility and Commodities:
- VIX: Fell 119bps, closing at 16.57.
- Crude Oil: Down 73bps, settling at $66.40.
- U.S. 10-Year Treasury Yield: Rose 1bp to 4.24%.
- Gold: Increased 115bps to $3,472.
- DXY (Dollar Index): Declined 13bps, ending at 98.05.
- Bitcoin: Surged 207bps, closing at $117,470.
Sector Highlights:
- Consumer: Continued dispersion within discretionary and staples sectors. Key EPS movers:
- Higher: BROS, CELH.
- Faded despite strong results: WRBY, SN, DKNG, RL.
- Disappointed/crushed: YETI, CROX.
- Reporting tomorrow: UAA, WEN.
- Healthcare: Sentiment hit record lows. Massive de-grossing following LLY’s underwhelming results (-14%).
- Technology: Persistent concerns over software weakness, largely sentiment-driven. Stocks like DDOG, HUBS, and DT saw fades, sparking debates on risk/reward dynamics around earnings. AAPL rallied ~8% over three days, raising questions about whether this marks a tactical short-covering moment or a structural shift toward a bullish outlook.
Other Key Developments:
1. 30-Year Treasury Auction: Slightly weaker, with a 2.2bp tail at 4.813%.
2. Crypto News: Rally fueled by reports that Trump may allow 401(k) exposure to crypto assets.
3. Firefly Aerospace (FLY): Successful IPO, priced at $45, opened at $70, and closed at $60.35 on 3.1 million shares traded.
Floor Activity:
Activity levels rated a 7 on a 1–10 scale. The floor finished flat versus the 30-day average of +67bps. Skews were benign:
- Long-Only Funds (LOs): Net sellers, primarily in financials and industrials.
- Hedge Funds (HFs): Net sellers across nearly every sector, though no sector saw material selling overall (sub $100 million).
After the Bell:
- MNST: Up 5% after delivering expected strong quarterly results.
- XYZ: Rose 9%, clearing expectations.
Derivatives Market:
Volatility ended slightly lower across the curve as skew sold off. AAPL remained in focus, with clients seeking upside exposure via calls. Notable flows included 1.2 million AAPL calls traded today versus the 20-day average of 635k.
- Single Stock Focus: LLY saw downside interest through put spread collars. Elevated wings favored short-vol strategies such as collars, underwrites, and ratios.
- Tomorrow’s Straddle: Priced at 0.60%.
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Past performance is not indicative of future results.
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Patrick has been involved in the financial markets for well over a decade as a self-educated professional trader and money manager. Flitting between the roles of market commentator, analyst and mentor, Patrick has improved the technical skills and psychological stance of literally hundreds of traders – coaching them to become savvy market operators!