Property & Financial Sector Risks

Fresh fears over the health of the Chinese economy are taking centre stage this week. On the back of recent data weakness, reports this week are centred around the Chinese property and financial sector.  According to Bloomberg, late on Friday three firms recorded miss payments on high yield products from the Zhongzhi Enterprise Group which managed around 1 trillion Yuan. Following news that Country Garden, one of China’s biggest property developers, is on the verge of bankruptcy, traders are highly concerned and expectations of fresh Chinese government stimulus have ratcheted higher. Country Garden has now suspended trading in 11 onshore notes.

Fiscal Stimulus Expectations

CNH has weakened sharply against USD amidst this news flow. With CDS on Chinese sovereign debt surging higher overnight, traders are clearly worried about a significant downside shock materialising. In light of weakening economic data, the Chinese government has announced a series of smaller measures recently. However, a full fiscal stimulus package has yet to be announced and with the near-term economic outlook growing more precarious, traders sense that the government will be forced into taking such measures sooner rather than later.

Technical Views

USDCNH

The rally in USDCNH has seen the pair breaking back above the 7.2636 level with price now testing the YTD highs once again. With momentum studies bullish, the focus is on a continuation higher here and a challenge of the 7.3585 level next. To the downside, should we slip back below 7.2636, focus will shift to 7.1743 as key support.